catalyst-calendar

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What is a Catalyst Calendar?

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Why It Matters

• Preparation beats reaction: Knowing that a company reports earnings next Tuesday lets you prepare a preview note, update your model, and brief PMs — rather than scrambling after the fact
• Risk management: Binary events (FDA approvals, court rulings) can cause 20%+ moves. Knowing they are coming lets you size positions appropriately or hedge
• Competitive advantage: The analyst who can tell a PM “three things happening in the next two weeks that matter for your portfolio” is far more valuable than one who only reacts to news
• Pattern recognition: Over time, tracking catalysts and their outcomes builds intuition about how markets respond to different event types

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Key Concepts

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Worked Example: Q1 2025 Catalyst Calendar for Semiconductor Coverage

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The Coverage Universe

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The Calendar (January-March 2025)

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Weekly Preview Note (Week of February 17-21, 2025)

SEMICONDUCTOR CATALYST PREVIEW -- Week of February 17-21, 2025

HEADLINE EVENT: NVIDIA Q4 FY25 Earnings (Wednesday Feb 19, After Close)

This is the most important earnings report of Q1 earnings season.
Three things to watch:

1. DATA CENTER REVENUE vs. $32.5B consensus
   - Bullish: >$34B (implies Q1 FY26 acceleration)
   - Bearish: <$31B (demand plateau concerns)
   - Our estimate: $33.8B (above consensus on Blackwell ramp)

2. BLACKWELL RAMP COMMENTARY
   - How many Blackwell GPUs shipped in Q4?
   - Supply chain constraints: are they easing or tightening?
   - Customer order book visibility (any new hyperscaler commitments?)

3. GROSS MARGIN TRAJECTORY
   - Consensus: 73.5%. Blackwell may initially dilute margins
   - Any signal below 72% would concern investors
   - Watch for mix commentary (Blackwell vs. Hopper)

SCENARIO TABLE:
| Scenario | DC Revenue | EPS | Stock Reaction |
|----------|-----------|-----|----------------|
| Bull     | >$34.0B   | >$0.87 | +8-12% ($160+) |
| Base     | $32-34B   | $0.82-0.87 | -2% to +5% |
| Bear     | <$31.0B   | <$0.80 | -10-15% |

POSITIONING:
- Maintain Long NVDA (4.5% position weight)
- Reduce AMD by 0.5% ahead of NVDA earnings (correlation risk)
- No hedge; accept the binary event risk given bull-skewed setup

OTHER EVENTS THIS WEEK:
- Monday Feb 17: Markets closed (Presidents' Day)
- Tuesday Feb 18: No earnings. Use the day to finalize
  NVDA earnings preview and distribute to clients.
- Thursday Feb 20: NVDA earnings call at 5 PM ET. Key quotes
  to isolate: Blackwell shipments, customer pipeline, margins.
- Friday Feb 21: Post-NVDA positioning review. Read-through
  assessment for AMD, AVGO, MRVL.

READ-THROUGH MAP:
If NVDA beats on AI demand → Positive for: AMD, MRVL, AVGO, MU
If NVDA misses on margins → Negative for: MRVL, AVGO (supplier concern)
If NVDA guides down → Negative for: entire sector (-5-8% selloff likely)

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Detailed Numerical Walkthrough: Sizing the NVDA Earnings Risk

Average absolute move: 8.6%
Implied move: 7.5%
Observation: Options are slightly underpriced vs. history.
However, the magnitude of beats has been decreasing (from +19%
to +4%), suggesting the market is getting better at forecasting
NVDA. Expect the move to compress toward 5-7%.

Position risk at 4.5% weight:
  Bull case (+10%):  Portfolio impact: +0.45%
  Bear case (-12%):  Portfolio impact: -0.54%
  Base case (+3%):   Portfolio impact: +0.14%

Decision: Maintain full position. Asymmetry favors the long side
given Blackwell ramp data points.

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Full Skill Workflow (From SKILL.md)

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Phase 1: Define Coverage Universe

• Complete list of companies to track (tickers and names)
• Sector and industry focus
• Whether to include macro events (FOMC, CPI, jobs, central bank decisions)
• Time horizon: next 2 weeks (tactical), next month (medium-term), next quarter (strategic)
• Whether to include events for non-coverage names with read-through implications (e.g., TSMC for a semiconductor analyst)

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Phase 2: Gather Catalysts Across Four Categories

• Quarterly earnings dates and times (pre-market vs. after-hours)
• Annual shareholder meetings
• Investor days and analyst days
• Capital markets days
• Debt maturity and refinancing dates
• Dividend ex-dates and payment dates

• Product launches or major announcements
• FDA approvals or regulatory decisions
• Contract renewals or expirations
• M&A milestones (announcement, shareholder vote, regulatory approval, close date)
• Management transitions (CEO, CFO departures/arrivals)
• Insider trading windows (lockup expirations for recent IPOs)
• Board changes and activist involvement

• Major conferences and who is presenting (CES, MWC, GTC, JPM Healthcare, etc.)
• Trade shows and expos
• Regulatory comment periods or rulings
• Industry data releases (monthly auto sales, semiconductor billings, retail same-store sales)
• Competitor earnings with read-through implications

• FOMC meetings (8 per year, dates known in advance)
• Key economic data: CPI, PPI, Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, PCE
• Central bank decisions globally (ECB, BOJ, BOE, PBOC)
• Geopolitical events with market impact (elections, trade negotiations, sanctions)

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Phase 3: Build the Calendar View

• Red = High impact (could move stock 5%+): earnings, FDA decisions, M&A votes
• Yellow = Moderate impact (1-3% potential): conferences, analyst days, industry data
• Green = Routine/informational: ex-dividend dates, annual meetings

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Phase 4: Generate Weekly Preview

1. [Day]: [Company] Q[X] earnings — consensus [$X EPS], our estimate [$X], key focus: [metric]
2. [Day]: [Event] — why it matters for [stocks]
3. [Day]: [Macro release] — expectations and positioning

• Early heads-up on important events to prepare for

• Events that could move specific positions
• Any pre-positioning recommended ahead of binary events
• Risk management: hedging recommendations ahead of high-impact events

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Phase 5: Deliver Output

• Excel workbook with calendar view, sortable by date/company/type/impact
• Weekly preview note in markdown or Word format
• Optional: Google Calendar or Outlook Calendar integration (ICS file)
• Optional: Automated alerts for high-impact events approaching

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Catalyst Outcome Tracking

1. Which event types produced the largest stock moves?
2. Were your impact ratings (H/M/L) calibrated correctly?
3. Did you miss any catalysts that turned out to be material?
4. Did you over-rate any events that turned out to be non-events?
5. What would you track differently next quarter?

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Common Mistakes (and How to Avoid Them)

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Daily Workflow Scenarios

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Scenario 1: Building the Initial Calendar for a New Quarter

1. Step 1 (1 hour): Pull all confirmed Q4 earnings dates from Bloomberg/FactSet for your 12 coverage companies. Cross-reference with company IR pages. Note which dates are confirmed vs. estimated.
2. Step 2 (1 hour): Add non-earnings events: CES (Jan 7-10), MWC (Feb 24-27), GTC (March, date TBD). Check which coverage companies are presenting at each.
3. Step 3 (30 minutes): Add macro events: 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, monthly CPI/PPI/Jobs dates. Add any trade policy events.
4. Step 4 (30 minutes): Add industry data: TSMC monthly revenue (10th of each month), SEMI equipment billings (monthly), SIA monthly billings.
5. Step 5 (30 minutes): Add corporate events: lockup expirations, analyst days, debt maturities. Check 8-K filings for recent announcements.
6. Step 6 (30 minutes): Assign impact ratings and positioning implications. Flag the top 5 events for the quarter.
7. Step 7 (30 minutes): Format the calendar in Excel with sortable columns. Create the first weekly preview note.

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Scenario 2: Weekly Calendar Update During Earnings Season

1. Update completed events (15 minutes): Mark this week’s earnings as complete. Record outcomes (beat/miss, stock move, lessons learned).
2. Verify next week’s dates (15 minutes): Confirm all four earnings dates. Check for any schedule changes. Note pre-market vs. after-hours timing.
3. Write the weekly preview (30 minutes): For each of next week’s earnings, include consensus estimates, your estimate, key metric to watch, and positioning recommendation.
4. Check for new events (15 minutes): Any new analyst days, conference presentations, or corporate events announced this week? Add them.
5. Distribute (10 minutes): Send the updated calendar and weekly preview to the team.

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Scenario 3: Reacting to an Unscheduled Catalyst

1. Immediately (30 minutes): Add the event to the calendar. Classify as HIGH impact. Note the activist’s track record and likely demands.
2. Within 2 hours: Research the activist’s history. What do they typically push for (board seats, strategic review, dividend increase, breakup)?
3. Same day: Update the positioning recommendation for this stock. Write a flash note for PMs.
4. Calendar update: Add expected follow-on events: proxy fight timeline (if applicable), board response deadline, next 13-D amendment due dates, shareholder meeting date.

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Scenario 4: Pre-Positioning Ahead of a Binary Event

1. 4 weeks before (1 hour): Add the event to the calendar with CRITICAL impact rating. Research approval probability (analyst consensus, AdCom vote if applicable, precedent).
2. 2 weeks before: Publish a preview note with scenario analysis: approval (+25-30% expected) vs. rejection (-30-40% expected) vs. CRL (complete response letter, -15-20%).
3. 1 week before: Review position sizing. A 4% position with a potential 30% downside means a 1.2% portfolio hit in the bear case. Is this acceptable? If not, trim or hedge.
4. Day of: Monitor FDA website and news feeds. Prepare templates for both outcomes so you can publish a flash note within 30 minutes of the decision.
5. Next day: Update the calendar to reflect the outcome and add any follow-on events (PDUFA date for resubmission if CRL, commercial launch timeline if approved).

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Practice Exercise

• Monthly retail sales reports (Census Bureau)
• Consumer confidence data (Conference Board)
• Major retail conferences (Shoptalk, NRF)
• Back-to-school season kickoff dates

• FOMC meetings in Q2
• CPI/PCE reports (consumer spending component)
• Jobs reports (wage growth implications)
• Consumer credit data

• Expected outcome (consensus where available)
• Your positioning recommendation
• Specific metric or data point that would change your view

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How to Add to Your Local Context

# Install the plugin
claude plugin install equity-research@financial-services-plugins

open ~/.claude/skills/equity-research/catalyst-calendar.md

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "earnings-calendar": {
      "command": "earnings-calendar-mcp",
      "args": ["--provider", "factset"]
    }
  }
}

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Best Practices

• Color-code by impact: Red = high impact (could move stock 5%+), Yellow = moderate (1-3% potential), Green = routine (informational)
• Track pre-announce risk: Some companies have a history of pre-announcing. Note this pattern in the calendar
• Note conference attendance: Which companies are presenting at an industry conference — and which are conspicuously absent — can signal strategic intent
• Archive past catalysts with outcomes: Did the stock actually move as expected? Over time, this builds pattern recognition about which events matter and which do not
• Check fund vintage for PE sponsors: A financial sponsor nearing end of investment period may be more motivated to act, making their portfolio companies more likely to pursue M&A or IPO events
• Update weekly at minimum: A stale calendar is worse than no calendar. Set a recurring time each Friday to refresh for the upcoming week
• Maintain a “surprise calendar”: Track events that were NOT on your calendar but moved stocks significantly. These are gaps in your coverage to address

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Dependencies

• Web search or data provider for earnings dates and event schedules
• Excel or spreadsheet tool for calendar workbook

• Bloomberg/FactSet for verified earnings dates
• Calendar integration (Google Calendar, Outlook) for automated reminders
• News alerts for unscheduled events