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What is a Catalyst Calendar?

A catalyst calendar is a structured tracking system for upcoming events that could move stock prices across an analyst’s coverage universe. It maps out earnings dates, product launches, regulatory decisions, industry conferences, and macroeconomic data releases on a timeline, with assessments of each event’s expected impact and implications for portfolio positioning. In professional investing, a catalyst is any event that could cause the market to reprice a stock — either because it reveals new information (earnings results, FDA approval, court ruling) or because it changes the narrative (management departure, strategic pivot, activist involvement). Catalysts are the bridge between fundamental analysis (“this stock is undervalued”) and actionable timing (“the market will recognize this undervaluation when X happens”). Event-driven hedge funds like Paulson & Co, Greenlight Capital, and Elliott Management build their entire strategies around catalysts. Even long-only fundamental investors at firms like Capital Group or T. Rowe Price use catalyst calendars to manage risk, time entries, and prepare for volatility events.

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Why It Matters

  • Preparation beats reaction: Knowing that a company reports earnings next Tuesday lets you prepare a preview note, update your model, and brief PMs — rather than scrambling after the fact
  • Risk management: Binary events (FDA approvals, court rulings) can cause 20%+ moves. Knowing they are coming lets you size positions appropriately or hedge
  • Competitive advantage: The analyst who can tell a PM “three things happening in the next two weeks that matter for your portfolio” is far more valuable than one who only reacts to news
  • Pattern recognition: Over time, tracking catalysts and their outcomes builds intuition about how markets respond to different event types

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Key Concepts

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Worked Example: Q1 2025 Catalyst Calendar for Semiconductor Coverage

To illustrate how a catalyst calendar works in practice, walk through a complete example for a semiconductor analyst covering 12 stocks.

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The Coverage Universe

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The Calendar (January-March 2025)

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Weekly Preview Note (Week of February 17-21, 2025)

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Detailed Numerical Walkthrough: Sizing the NVDA Earnings Risk

Current position: Long NVDA at 4.5% of portfolio. Stock at $142. Options-implied move: 7.5% ($10.65 per share) Historical earnings reactions (last 8 quarters): Analysis:

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Full Skill Workflow (From SKILL.md)

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Phase 1: Define Coverage Universe

Specify:
  • Complete list of companies to track (tickers and names)
  • Sector and industry focus
  • Whether to include macro events (FOMC, CPI, jobs, central bank decisions)
  • Time horizon: next 2 weeks (tactical), next month (medium-term), next quarter (strategic)
  • Whether to include events for non-coverage names with read-through implications (e.g., TSMC for a semiconductor analyst)

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Phase 2: Gather Catalysts Across Four Categories

Earnings & Financial Events:
  • Quarterly earnings dates and times (pre-market vs. after-hours)
  • Annual shareholder meetings
  • Investor days and analyst days
  • Capital markets days
  • Debt maturity and refinancing dates
  • Dividend ex-dates and payment dates
Corporate Events:
  • Product launches or major announcements
  • FDA approvals or regulatory decisions
  • Contract renewals or expirations
  • M&A milestones (announcement, shareholder vote, regulatory approval, close date)
  • Management transitions (CEO, CFO departures/arrivals)
  • Insider trading windows (lockup expirations for recent IPOs)
  • Board changes and activist involvement
Industry Events:
  • Major conferences and who is presenting (CES, MWC, GTC, JPM Healthcare, etc.)
  • Trade shows and expos
  • Regulatory comment periods or rulings
  • Industry data releases (monthly auto sales, semiconductor billings, retail same-store sales)
  • Competitor earnings with read-through implications
Macro Events:
  • FOMC meetings (8 per year, dates known in advance)
  • Key economic data: CPI, PPI, Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, PCE
  • Central bank decisions globally (ECB, BOJ, BOE, PBOC)
  • Geopolitical events with market impact (elections, trade negotiations, sanctions)

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Phase 3: Build the Calendar View

Organize events in a structured table: Color-coding convention:
  • Red = High impact (could move stock 5%+): earnings, FDA decisions, M&A votes
  • Yellow = Moderate impact (1-3% potential): conferences, analyst days, industry data
  • Green = Routine/informational: ex-dividend dates, annual meetings

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Phase 4: Generate Weekly Preview

Each week (typically Friday afternoon or Monday morning), produce a forward-looking summary: This Week’s Key Events:
  1. [Day]: [Company] Q[X] earnings — consensus [XEPS],ourestimate[X EPS], our estimate [X], key focus: [metric]
  2. [Day]: [Event] — why it matters for [stocks]
  3. [Day]: [Macro release] — expectations and positioning
Next Week Preview:
  • Early heads-up on important events to prepare for
Position Implications:
  • Events that could move specific positions
  • Any pre-positioning recommended ahead of binary events
  • Risk management: hedging recommendations ahead of high-impact events

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Phase 5: Deliver Output

  • Excel workbook with calendar view, sortable by date/company/type/impact
  • Weekly preview note in markdown or Word format
  • Optional: Google Calendar or Outlook Calendar integration (ICS file)
  • Optional: Automated alerts for high-impact events approaching

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Catalyst Outcome Tracking

After each catalyst event occurs, record the outcome to build pattern recognition: Quarterly pattern review questions:
  1. Which event types produced the largest stock moves?
  2. Were your impact ratings (H/M/L) calibrated correctly?
  3. Did you miss any catalysts that turned out to be material?
  4. Did you over-rate any events that turned out to be non-events?
  5. What would you track differently next quarter?

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Common Mistakes (and How to Avoid Them)

What goes wrong: The calendar has 150 entries for the quarter, including every minor conference, routine regulatory filing, and insignificant data release. PMs cannot distinguish what matters from what does not.How to avoid it: Limit the calendar to events that could realistically move a stock by 2%+ or that require pre-positioning. A rule of thumb: if the event outcome is already known or will not change anyone’s investment thesis, it should not be on the calendar.
What goes wrong: You pull earnings dates from a database in December, but by February, three companies have shifted their reporting dates. Your calendar shows wrong dates, and the PM is unprepared when earnings are released a week earlier than expected.How to avoid it: Verify earnings dates against company IR pages 2 weeks before the expected date. Major data providers (Bloomberg, FactSet) update regularly, but company IR pages are the definitive source. Flag any dates marked as “tentative” or “estimated.”
What goes wrong: You track your 12 coverage companies meticulously but ignore TSMC’s monthly revenue, which is the best real-time demand signal for the entire semiconductor sector. A key data point is missed because it is not a “coverage company.”How to avoid it: Identify 5-10 non-coverage events with significant read-through to your stocks. For semis: TSMC monthly revenue, SEMI equipment billings, AMD/NVDA if not in coverage. For retail: consumer confidence, credit card spending data. Add these to the calendar with a “read-through” tag.
What goes wrong: Every event on the calendar is marked “High” impact. When everything is high priority, nothing is. The PM cannot determine what actually requires preparation.How to avoid it: Be rigorous about impact ratings. HIGH should be reserved for events that could move a stock 5%+ (quarterly earnings for major positions, binary FDA decisions, activist announcements). MEDIUM for 2-5% potential. LOW for informational events. If more than 20% of your calendar is HIGH, you are overrating.
What goes wrong: The calendar lists events but does not say what to do about them. It is purely informational — a PM reads “NVDA earnings Feb 19” but gets no guidance on whether to add, hold, hedge, or trim ahead of the event.How to avoid it: Every HIGH-impact event should have a positioning recommendation: “Maintain Long NVDA, accept binary risk” or “Consider buying puts on AMD to hedge sector risk around NVDA earnings” or “Trim INTC by 50% ahead of Q4 — expect another miss.”
What goes wrong: You build a new calendar each quarter from scratch without looking at how previous catalysts actually played out. You do not learn which events actually moved stocks and which were irrelevant.How to avoid it: Maintain a historical outcomes sheet. After each event, record: expected impact, actual stock move, and what you learned. Over 4-8 quarters, this becomes a powerful calibration tool.
What goes wrong: A recently IPO’d coverage company has a lockup expiration approaching. Insiders dump 15M shares, the stock drops 8%, and the PM is blindsided because the lockup date was not on the calendar.How to avoid it: For any company that went public in the last 12-18 months, identify the lockup expiration date from the prospectus (typically 90-180 days post-IPO). Mark it as HIGH impact. Note the number of shares that become eligible for sale.
What goes wrong: A coverage company is 30% owned by a PE sponsor whose fund is in year 8 (nearing end of typical investment period). The PE firm sells its entire stake via a secondary offering, and the stock drops 6% on dilution. The sell was predictable given the fund timeline.How to avoid it: For companies with significant PE ownership (>10%), note the fund vintage and typical hold period. A fund in year 6-8 is in “harvest mode” and likely to sell. Add potential secondary offering dates to the calendar.
What goes wrong: The calendar was accurate when created in December but has not been updated since. It is now February, several events have been rescheduled, new events have been announced, and the calendar is unreliable.How to avoid it: Set a recurring Friday afternoon session (30 minutes) to refresh the calendar: update any changed dates, add newly announced events, remove completed events, and adjust impact ratings based on new information.
What goes wrong: You list industry conferences as routine events without noting which companies are presenting and what topics they plan to cover. A company makes a major strategy announcement at a conference that your calendar classified as “Low” impact.How to avoid it: For major industry conferences, research the agenda and presenter list. Note which of your coverage companies are presenting and whether any executive who does not normally present at conferences is scheduled to speak (often signals a major announcement). Also note which companies are conspicuously absent — declining to present can signal they are in a quiet period ahead of a deal.

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Daily Workflow Scenarios

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Scenario 1: Building the Initial Calendar for a New Quarter

Context: It is December 28, 2024. You need to build the Q1 2025 catalyst calendar for your 12-stock semiconductor coverage universe. Action plan:
  1. Step 1 (1 hour): Pull all confirmed Q4 earnings dates from Bloomberg/FactSet for your 12 coverage companies. Cross-reference with company IR pages. Note which dates are confirmed vs. estimated.
  2. Step 2 (1 hour): Add non-earnings events: CES (Jan 7-10), MWC (Feb 24-27), GTC (March, date TBD). Check which coverage companies are presenting at each.
  3. Step 3 (30 minutes): Add macro events: 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, monthly CPI/PPI/Jobs dates. Add any trade policy events.
  4. Step 4 (30 minutes): Add industry data: TSMC monthly revenue (10th of each month), SEMI equipment billings (monthly), SIA monthly billings.
  5. Step 5 (30 minutes): Add corporate events: lockup expirations, analyst days, debt maturities. Check 8-K filings for recent announcements.
  6. Step 6 (30 minutes): Assign impact ratings and positioning implications. Flag the top 5 events for the quarter.
  7. Step 7 (30 minutes): Format the calendar in Excel with sortable columns. Create the first weekly preview note.

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Scenario 2: Weekly Calendar Update During Earnings Season

Context: It is Friday afternoon during Q4 earnings season. Three companies reported this week; next week has four more. Action plan:
  1. Update completed events (15 minutes): Mark this week’s earnings as complete. Record outcomes (beat/miss, stock move, lessons learned).
  2. Verify next week’s dates (15 minutes): Confirm all four earnings dates. Check for any schedule changes. Note pre-market vs. after-hours timing.
  3. Write the weekly preview (30 minutes): For each of next week’s earnings, include consensus estimates, your estimate, key metric to watch, and positioning recommendation.
  4. Check for new events (15 minutes): Any new analyst days, conference presentations, or corporate events announced this week? Add them.
  5. Distribute (10 minutes): Send the updated calendar and weekly preview to the team.

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Scenario 3: Reacting to an Unscheduled Catalyst

Context: An activist investor files a 13-D disclosing a 9.5% stake in one of your coverage companies. This was not on the calendar. Action plan:
  1. Immediately (30 minutes): Add the event to the calendar. Classify as HIGH impact. Note the activist’s track record and likely demands.
  2. Within 2 hours: Research the activist’s history. What do they typically push for (board seats, strategic review, dividend increase, breakup)?
  3. Same day: Update the positioning recommendation for this stock. Write a flash note for PMs.
  4. Calendar update: Add expected follow-on events: proxy fight timeline (if applicable), board response deadline, next 13-D amendment due dates, shareholder meeting date.

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Scenario 4: Pre-Positioning Ahead of a Binary Event

Context: An FDA approval decision for a coverage company is scheduled for March 15. The stock could move 25%+ in either direction. Action plan:
  1. 4 weeks before (1 hour): Add the event to the calendar with CRITICAL impact rating. Research approval probability (analyst consensus, AdCom vote if applicable, precedent).
  2. 2 weeks before: Publish a preview note with scenario analysis: approval (+25-30% expected) vs. rejection (-30-40% expected) vs. CRL (complete response letter, -15-20%).
  3. 1 week before: Review position sizing. A 4% position with a potential 30% downside means a 1.2% portfolio hit in the bear case. Is this acceptable? If not, trim or hedge.
  4. Day of: Monitor FDA website and news feeds. Prepare templates for both outcomes so you can publish a flash note within 30 minutes of the decision.
  5. Next day: Update the calendar to reflect the outcome and add any follow-on events (PDUFA date for resubmission if CRL, commercial launch timeline if approved).

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Practice Exercise

Exercise: Build a Q2 2025 Catalyst Calendar for Retail Coverage You cover 10 retail stocks: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Nike (NKE). Task 1: Identify and list all confirmed Q1 earnings dates (April-May 2025) for your 10 stocks. Note pre-market vs. after-hours. (Use web search or estimate based on historical patterns.) Task 2: Add key industry events for Q2 2025:
  • Monthly retail sales reports (Census Bureau)
  • Consumer confidence data (Conference Board)
  • Major retail conferences (Shoptalk, NRF)
  • Back-to-school season kickoff dates
Task 3: Add macro events that specifically impact retail:
  • FOMC meetings in Q2
  • CPI/PCE reports (consumer spending component)
  • Jobs reports (wage growth implications)
  • Consumer credit data
Task 4: For the 5 highest-impact events on your calendar, provide:
  • Expected outcome (consensus where available)
  • Your positioning recommendation
  • Specific metric or data point that would change your view
Task 5: Write the weekly preview note for the week containing the most catalysts.

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How to Add to Your Local Context

Customizing for your coverage: Edit the skill file to include your specific coverage universe and event categories:
Connecting to calendar data:
Building recurring templates: Some catalysts are recurring (monthly industry data like auto sales, retail same-store sales). Build a template and auto-populate these so you only need to update non-recurring events.

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Best Practices

  • Color-code by impact: Red = high impact (could move stock 5%+), Yellow = moderate (1-3% potential), Green = routine (informational)
  • Track pre-announce risk: Some companies have a history of pre-announcing. Note this pattern in the calendar
  • Note conference attendance: Which companies are presenting at an industry conference — and which are conspicuously absent — can signal strategic intent
  • Archive past catalysts with outcomes: Did the stock actually move as expected? Over time, this builds pattern recognition about which events matter and which do not
  • Check fund vintage for PE sponsors: A financial sponsor nearing end of investment period may be more motivated to act, making their portfolio companies more likely to pursue M&A or IPO events
  • Update weekly at minimum: A stale calendar is worse than no calendar. Set a recurring time each Friday to refresh for the upcoming week
  • Maintain a “surprise calendar”: Track events that were NOT on your calendar but moved stocks significantly. These are gaps in your coverage to address

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Dependencies

Required:
  • Web search or data provider for earnings dates and event schedules
  • Excel or spreadsheet tool for calendar workbook
Optional:
  • Bloomberg/FactSet for verified earnings dates
  • Calendar integration (Google Calendar, Outlook) for automated reminders
  • News alerts for unscheduled events