> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://financecontext.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# thesis-tracker
> Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names with pillar scorecards and conviction tracking
## What is an Investment Thesis?
An **investment thesis** is a structured, falsifiable argument for why a stock should go up (long thesis) or down (short thesis). It is the intellectual foundation of every investment position. Unlike a casual opinion ("I think Apple is a good company"), a thesis is specific, measurable, and time-bound: "Long Apple -- services revenue will grow 15%+ annually through 2027 driven by installed base monetization, pushing gross margins above 48% and warranting a premium P/E multiple. Price target \$250, representing 25% upside."
The best investors at firms like Bridgewater, Tiger Global, and Lone Pine maintain disciplined thesis tracking frameworks. They document their reasoning *before* entering a position, then systematically update it as new information arrives. This process prevents two common biases: **anchoring** (refusing to update views when evidence changes) and **confirmation bias** (only noticing evidence that supports your position).
A thesis has several components: a **core statement** (the 1-2 sentence summary), **supporting pillars** (3-5 reasons the thesis will play out), **key risks** (what would make you wrong), **catalysts** (events that will prove or disprove the thesis), and a **stop-loss trigger** (the point at which you exit regardless).
## Why It Matters
Without a written thesis, investment decisions become emotional. You buy because a stock is going up and sell because it is going down -- the opposite of disciplined investing. A thesis framework forces you to:
* **Be explicit** about why you own something before you buy it
* **Track evidence** systematically rather than relying on memory and gut feel
* **Recognize when you are wrong** by defining failure conditions in advance
* **Communicate clearly** to portfolio managers, risk committees, and colleagues
* **Learn from mistakes** by reviewing past theses and understanding where your analysis broke down
## Key Concepts
| Term | Definition |
| -------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Pillar** | A supporting argument for the thesis (e.g., "margin expansion from operating leverage") |
| **Conviction Level** | How confident you are in the thesis: High, Medium, or Low |
| **Scorecard** | A running assessment of each pillar's status: On Track, Behind, Ahead, or Broken |
| **Stop-Loss Trigger** | A predefined condition that forces an exit regardless of conviction |
| **Disconfirming Evidence** | Data that challenges the thesis -- critical to track rigorously |
| **Catalyst** | An event that should prove or disprove a specific pillar |
| **Position Sizing** | How much capital to allocate, which should correlate with conviction level |
## How It Works
**For a new thesis**, capture all components: company name and ticker, position direction (long/short), 1-2 sentence core thesis statement, 3-5 supporting pillars, 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis, upcoming catalysts, target price and valuation methodology, and stop-loss trigger.
**For an existing thesis**, identify the new data point or development that triggered the review.
For each new data point, record: the date, what changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, regulatory change), which pillar it affects, whether it strengthens/weakens/neutralizes that pillar, the recommended action (no change, increase, trim, or exit), and updated conviction level.
Maintain a running scorecard across all pillars, tracking original expectations vs. current status:
| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |
| ------------------- | -------------------- | ---------------- | ---------- |
| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |
| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |
| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |
Track upcoming catalysts with expected dates, impact assessment, and notes on positioning.
A thesis summary suitable for morning meeting discussion, portfolio review, or risk committee presentation. Format: concise markdown or Word document with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.
A thesis should be **falsifiable** -- if nothing could disprove it, it is not a thesis. Define what would make you wrong *before* you enter the position.
Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence. It is easy to notice things that support your view and miss things that challenge it.
## How to Add to Your Local Context
```bash theme={null}
# Install the plugin
claude plugin install equity-research@financial-services-plugins
```
**Customizing for your firm:**
If your firm has a specific thesis template or risk framework (e.g., required risk committee fields, position sizing rules), edit the skill file:
```bash theme={null}
open ~/.claude/skills/equity-research/thesis-tracker.md
```
**Connecting to portfolio management systems:**
To integrate with your PMS for automatic position tracking, configure the MCP server:
```json theme={null}
{
"mcpServers": {
"portfolio-system": {
"command": "your-pms-mcp-server",
"args": ["--config", "path/to/config.json"]
}
}
}
```
**Persisting thesis data across sessions:**
Store thesis data in structured markdown files in your project directory so Claude can reference them across conversations. The skill will look for existing thesis files and load them automatically.
## Best Practices
* **Review theses at least quarterly**, even when nothing dramatic has happened. Markets change gradually and theses can erode without a single catalytic event.
* **Be honest about broken pillars**. If 2 of your 4 pillars have failed, the thesis is likely broken regardless of the remaining 2.
* **Track your hit rate over time**. Which types of theses (growth, value, event-driven) have worked best? This self-awareness improves future idea generation.
* **Size positions to conviction**. High conviction should mean larger position size, Medium should mean standard, Low should mean small or watch-list only.
* **If the thesis is working, ask why**. Sometimes stocks go up for reasons unrelated to your thesis. Understanding this prevents false confidence.
* **Portfolio-level review**: If managing multiple positions, periodically do a full portfolio thesis review to ensure overall positioning is coherent.