> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://financecontext.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# /thesis

> Create a new investment thesis or update an existing one with new data points

## What is an Investment Thesis?

An **investment thesis** is a structured argument for why a stock should be bought or sold. It is not a vague feeling -- it is a falsifiable statement with specific supporting pillars, identifiable risks, and measurable milestones. For example: "Long ACME Corp -- margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as revenue mix shifts to higher-margin software, with a 12-month price target of \$150 implying 30% upside."

Professional investors track their theses rigorously because markets are dynamic. New data arrives constantly -- earnings results, management changes, competitive moves, regulatory shifts -- and each data point either strengthens, weakens, or is irrelevant to the original thesis. The best investors update their views systematically rather than anchoring to their initial position.

<Tip>
  A common pitfall is **confirmation bias** -- noticing evidence that supports your thesis while ignoring evidence that challenges it. Tracking disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence is what separates disciplined investors from emotional ones.
</Tip>

## Command Syntax

```bash theme={null}
/thesis [company ticker]
```

If a ticker is not provided, the command asks: "Which position would you like to review?"

## What It Does

* **New thesis**: Walks through capturing the core thesis statement, 3-5 supporting pillars, 3-5 risks, upcoming catalysts, target price, and stop-loss trigger
* **Existing thesis**: Logs a new data point, assesses impact on each pillar, updates conviction level (High/Medium/Low), and recommends an action (No change / Increase / Trim / Exit)

## Output

A thesis summary suitable for morning meeting discussion, portfolio review, or risk committee presentation -- formatted as concise markdown or a Word document.

## How to Customize

* To integrate with your portfolio management system, configure the relevant MCP server in `.mcp.json`
* To add firm-specific fields (e.g., risk committee categories), edit the `thesis-tracker` skill file

## Related

* [thesis-tracker skill](/en/equity-research/skills/thesis-tracker) -- the skill loaded by this command
* [/catalysts command](/en/equity-research/commands/catalysts) -- track upcoming events that could affect your thesis